Euro: Volatility divergence points to future swings against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Euro: Volatility divergence points to future swings against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Source: EODHD - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-volatility-divergence-points-to-future-swings-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202609250628
Published: Sep 25, 2026 2:28 AM

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that EUR/USD realized 3-month volatility has dropped to near five-year lows. He links part of the calm to highly correlated central bank rate expectations driven partly by oil prices, but notes this cannot fully explain the move.

Market context: This update is relevant to EUR traders, with EURUSD as the primary instrument to monitor for follow-through, trend continuation, or headline volatility.