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Fourth Quarter US GDP Continues to Surprise
Published Apr 09, 2026 8:31 AM
Today's release of The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) third estimate of Q4 2025 GDP increased at a rate of 0.5% (revised down from previous estimates of 1.4% and 0.7%. This reflects a considerable deceleration in US economic growth compared to Q3 GDP.
Key Takeaways:
Real GDP Growth: Increased 0.5% annualized, downwardly revised from the second estimate of 0.7%.
Drivers: The increase was led by consumer spending and investment, though partially offset by decreases in government spending and exports.
Price Index: The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.7% in Q4.
Corporate Profits: Reflected a preliminary update, indicating shifts in corporate income.
State Impact: Real GDP increased in 35 states, with performance ranging from a 3.8% increase in North Dakota to an 8.3% decrease in the District of Columbia.
The next release from the BEA, the Advance Estimate for Q1 2026, is scheduled for April 30, 2026.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Key Takeaways:
Real GDP Growth: Increased 0.5% annualized, downwardly revised from the second estimate of 0.7%.
Drivers: The increase was led by consumer spending and investment, though partially offset by decreases in government spending and exports.
Price Index: The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.7% in Q4.
Corporate Profits: Reflected a preliminary update, indicating shifts in corporate income.
State Impact: Real GDP increased in 35 states, with performance ranging from a 3.8% increase in North Dakota to an 8.3% decrease in the District of Columbia.
The next release from the BEA, the Advance Estimate for Q1 2026, is scheduled for April 30, 2026.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product